CONTENTS

Topic One: Demographic Shifts and Policy Adjustments
1　Monitoring Survey Report on Migrant Workers in 2012
【Household Survey Office, National Bureau of Statistics】／001
　　1. Scale of Migrant Population Size／001
　　2. Regional Distribution of Migrant Workers／003
　　3. Gender, Age, Education and Training of Migrant Workers／005
　　4. Employment of Migrant Workers／007
　　5. Income of Migrant Workers／008
　　6. Housing of Migrant Workers／011
　　7. Social Security of Migrant Workers／012
2　The Trend of China’s Population Development and Policy
　　Adjustments【Li Jianmin】／016
　　1. New Trend in Population Changes／016
　　2. Some Problems with China’s Low Fertility Rate／023
　　3. Adjustments to Family-Planning Policy: Values and Principles／026
3　Population Aging and Sustainable Development【Song Xiaowu】／031
　　1. Characteristics of China’s Population Aging／031
　　2. Impacts of China’s Population Aging／033
　　3. Policy Responses to Population Aging／036
4　Labor Supply and Policies during the New Stage of
　　Economic Development【Du Yang, Lu Yang】／038
　　1. The Necessity of Stimulating Labor Supply／038
　　2. Changes in Labor Force Participation／041
　　3. Changes in Unemployment Rate and Their Characteristics／051
　　4. Employment Rate and Working Hours／055
　　5. Conclusions and Suggestions／059
5　Changes in Global Population in the Next Twenty Years and
　　Implications for China【Zheng Zhenzhen】／062
　　1. Research Background／062
　　2. Characteristics of and Trends in Global Population Changes／064
　　3. Problems and Challenges Facing Various Countries／076
　　4. Discussion: Implications for China／078

Topic Two: Household Registration System Reform and Urbanization
6　Wage Inflation: Dilemma Making the Labor Market Work【Cai Fang】／082
　　1. Strong Labor Market／083
　　2. Factors Constraining Labor Productivity Growth／085
　　3. Wage Inflation Can Go Too Far／087
　　4. Necessity of Public Policy Reform／090
7　The Cost of Household Registration System Reform Equalizing Basic
　　Public Services and Continuing Urbanization【Qu Xiaobo, Cheng Jie】／093
　　1. Introduction／093
　　2. Nature of Household Registration System Reform and Current Research／095
　　3. Approaches to and Methods for Estimating Household Registration
　　　　System Reform Cost／098
　　4. Household Registration System Reform Cost Estimates／100
　　5. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions／107
8　Discussions on Household Registration System Reform Paths【Kam Wing Chan】／111
　　1. Introduction／111
　　2. Schemes and Steps of Household Registration System Reform／113
　　3. Public Cost Estimations on the Urbanization of Migrant Workers／119
　　4. Conclusions／123
9　Changes in Migrants Workers’Consumption Level and
　　Their Determining Factors【Wang Meiyan】／126
　　1. Introduction／126
　　2. Data／128
　　3. Human Capital, Employment, Income and Social Security for Migrants／128
　　4. The Consumption Level of Migrant Households and
　　　　Its Determining Factors／133
　　5. Main Conclusions and Policy Suggestions／143
10　The Implementation of Active Employment Policies on Groups with
　　Employment Difficulties【Du Yang, Cheng Jie】／146
　　1. The Growing Human Resource Value of Groups with
　　　　Employment Difficulties ／146
　　2. How Do Groups with Employment Difficulties Participate
　　　　in the Labor Market?／150
　　3. The Characteristics of Unemployment among Groups with
　　　　Employment Difficulties／154
　　4. The Implementation of Pro-Active Employment Policies／159
11　Social Protection is Not a Negative Incentive: Solving
　　the “Muller Problem”in Stages【Cai Fang】／163
　　1. Introduction／163
　　2. Strong Labor Market since the Lewis Turning Point／166
　　3. Three Vulnerable Groups／168
　　4. Policy Suggestions／176

Topic Three: Educational Development and Macro-Economy
12　Population Structure Shapes Macro-Economic Pattern【Peng Wensheng】／179
　　1. Introduction／179
　　2. The Main Chracteristics of China’s Population Structure／180
　　3. Population Structure and Economic Growth／185
　　4. Population Structure and Economic Structure／188
　　5. Population Structure and Inflation／190
　　6. Population Structure and Asset Price／195
　　7. Population Structure and Currency Credit Cycle／197
　　8. The Experiences of Developed Countries／200
13　The Labor Supply and Demand of Human Resources and Development
　　of Higher Education in the Era of Mass Higher Education
　　【Hu Ruiwen, Zhang Haishui and Zhu Xi】／210
　　1. The Rapid Development of China’s Higher Education／210
　　2. The Rapid Development of Higher Education Improves the Capacity
　　　　for Economic and Social Sustainable Development／214
　　3. The Next Ten Years: From Mass Higher Education to Universal Access／215
　　4. The New Situation of Demand and Supply of College Graduates
　　　　with the Rapid Development of Higher Education／217
　　5. The Main Goals of Higher Education Transition in the Era of
　　　　Mass Higher Education／224
　　6. Some Suggestions on Structural Adjustments and Transformative
　　　　Development of Higher Education／226
14　Changes in the Educational Level of China’s Current
　　Workforce Its Future Prospects【Xu Jiancheng, Zhang Shuang】／229
　　1. The Size of China’s Labor Force and Changes in Their
　　　　Educational Level／229
　　2. The Size of China’s Work-Force by Industry and Sector and
　　　　Their Educational Level／232
　　3. The Size of China’s Work-Force by Occupation and Their
　　　　Educational Level／241
　　4. Prospects of China’s Future Human Resources Supply and Demand／245
　　5. Some Suggestions on Promoting China’s Human Resources Development／247
15　The Lewis Turning Point and A New Economic Development
　　Pattern【Huang Yiping】／250
　　1. The Economic Pattern of “High Growth and Deep Imbalance”
　　　　in the Past Decade／250
　　2. The Formation of “New Normal”for Economic Growth／252
　　3. Preliminary Evidence for Economic Rebalance／255
　　4. The Lewis Turning Point and the Reform of Factor Markets／260
　　5. Looking Forward to the Economic Policies of the New Administration／264
　　6. Eliminating the Fear of Economic Downturn／267

Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.