1. Analysis and Projections for China’s Economy:
2007 Spring Report ............................................................... 1
Focus Group for China Economic Analysis and Projections
2. Grasping the Multistage Characteristic of Macro-Control
in the Current Economic Cycle ............................................ 13
Liu Shucheng
3. Investigating China’s Current Fiscal Trend ......................... 21
Gao Peiyong
4. Analysis of the Financial Markets and Monetary Policy in
2006 ....................................................................................... 39
Li Yang, Peng Xingyun
5. Analysis of China’s Commercial Banks in 2006 .................. 77
China Economic Focus Group
6. China’s Capital Market: Overview of 2006 and
Projections for 2007 ............................................................... 97
Wang Guogang, He Xuqiang
7. Analysis of the International Competitiveness of China’s
Manufacturing Sector ............................................................ 129
Jin Bei, Li Gang, Chen Zhi
8. Analysis and Forecast of Utilisation of Foreign Investment
in 2006 ................................................................................. 147
Zhao Jinping, Fang Jin
9. Agriculture, the Rural Economy and the National
Economy .............................................................................. 159
Zhang Yuanhong
10. Supply & Demand in the Agricultural Product Market
and Price Trends ................................................................. 177
Li Yongqiang
11. Economic Overview of 2006 and Forecast for 2007 ......... 197
Fan Min
12. The Real Estate Market in China, 2006–2007: An
Analysis of the Real Estate Market in 2006 and a
Projection of Its Trends for 2007 ....................................... 211
Project Group
13. Analysis of Land Prices in Chinese Cities, 2006 ................ 237
Zou Xiaoyun, Tian Yanjun
14. The Chinese Economy’s Lewis Turning Point .................. 253
Cai Fang
15. Demand Remains Strong and Prices Continue to
Drop—An Overview of the Productive Materials Market
in 2006 and Prospects for 2007 .......................................... 265
Chen Kexin, Chen Zongqun
16. An Analysis of China’s Import-Export Trade Imbalance
and Relevant Adjustments .................................................. 277
Pei Changhong, Sheng Ti
17. Slight Decreases in Amounts and Further Improvements
in Quality—An Analysis of China’s Utilisation of Foreign
Capital in 2006 and Prospects for 2007 ............................. 307
Jiang Xiaojuan
Chen Jiagui is vice president of the China Academy of Social Sciences, as well as a commissioner of the 10th NPC Standing Committee, a member of the Financial and Economic Committee, researcher, doctoral tutor, and concurrent director of the Chinese Institute of Business Administration, deputy chairman of the China Economic and Social Council, deputy director of the China Industrial Economics General Association, and a member of the Scientific Assessment Group of the State Council Academic Degree Committee.
Description:
Since 2006, China’s economic situation has performed well overall but faces certain issues which need urgent attention. One of these is the excessively rapid increase in investment in fixed assets, and the excessive scale of this investment. The continuing “three highs” (i.e. high absolute investment growth, high proportion of investment to GDP, and high impact of investment on economic growth) manifested in investment can very easily cause national or local overheating of the economy.
As a result of China’s almost three decades of economic reform, the socialist market economy system has basically been established, and short-term problems have essentially been resolved, especially with respect to the common consumer goods market, in which supply now normally exceeds demand thanks to the participation of a large-scale non-state economy and the development of keen competition.
State-owned and local projects still make up a large proportion of China’s current investments. In the first half of 2006, state-owned investments accounted for 46.5% of urban fixed asset investments, and 89.6% of local investments. It is obvious that government investment still plays an important role, although there have been severe changes to the systemic background. The positive role of government investment has undoubtedly resulted in infrastructural improvements and a boost to economic growth. However, it should also be pointed out that, because the mechanism by which government investment boosts growth has not been eliminated and local government capital sources and investments are not standardized, the government still retains a powerful investment capability, and this powerful guidance function of government investment had also led to an expansion in overall social investment, which is why the rate of investment has remained high.
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